Welcome to the Signal Board
The Signal Board is the command center of AetherMarkets. It surfaces TMF Intelligence signals across 25 markets — equities, indices, commodities, forex, and crypto — updated weekly after Friday close. Every row in the board is a complete trade thesis. Click any row to expand its Trade Plan Card, which gives you the exact entry zone, stop-loss, profit target, risk-reward ratio, and a plain-English action summary so you always know what to do next.
This guide walks you through every column, every signal tier, and every component of the Trade Plan Card so you can trade with confidence from day one.
1. Reading the Column Headers
Each column header includes a (?) tooltip icon. Hover or tap it for a quick definition. Below is the full reference.
| Column | What It Shows | How to Use It |
|---|---|---|
| MARKET | Ticker symbol and full asset name (e.g., SPX — S&P 500). | Identify the asset at a glance. Click the symbol link for the detailed market page. |
| SIGNAL | TMF Intelligence signal tier — the primary trade directive. | Determines whether you should enter, watch, or stay flat. See the Signal Tier Hierarchy below. |
| FLOW | Institutional momentum score on a 0–100 scale. | Above 60 means strong momentum supports the signal. Below 40 means flow is weak or reversing — proceed with caution even if the signal is bullish. |
| SHIELD | Risk protection override system. | Shield always takes priority over the signal. If Shield says EXIT, you close positions regardless of what the signal says. See Shield Levels below. |
| W/D/6H | Multi-timeframe trend alignment across Weekly, Daily, and 6-hour charts. | Green dots mean bullish alignment on that timeframe; red dots mean bearish. The more timeframes that agree, the higher the conviction. |
| CONVICTION | Overall trade conviction combining timeframe alignment, flow, and pattern quality. | Directly maps to your position size. MAX = 75%, HIGH = 50%, MODERATE = 25%, SPECULATIVE = skip or minimal. |
| TARGET | Expected price move as a percentage, derived from the TMF expected-move model. | Use this to set your profit target. A +7% target on a $100 stock means the model expects $107. |
| SIZE | Recommended position size as a percentage of your standard allocation. | Follow this to manage risk. "SKIP" means conditions are unfavorable — do not enter. |
2. Signal Tier Hierarchy
Signals are not binary. TMF Intelligence uses a tiered system that communicates both direction and conviction in a single label. The tiers, from weakest to strongest, are:
| Tier | Direction | Meaning | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAIT | Neutral | No setup detected. Market is choppy or transitioning. | Stay flat. Do not enter. |
| WATCH BULL | Bullish | A bullish pattern is forming but not yet confirmed. | Monitor closely. Prepare your trade plan but do not enter yet. |
| WATCH BEAR | Bearish | A bearish pattern is forming but not yet confirmed. | Monitor closely. Prepare a short/put plan but do not enter yet. |
| BUY | Bullish | Confirmed bullish signal. Setup criteria met. | Enter long. Follow the Trade Plan Card for entry zone and sizing. |
| SELL | Bearish | Confirmed bearish signal. Setup criteria met. | Enter short or buy puts. Follow the Trade Plan Card. |
| STRONG BUY | Bullish | High-conviction bullish signal with strong flow and multi-timeframe alignment. | Enter long with increased sizing. This is a high-probability setup. |
| STRONG SELL | Bearish | High-conviction bearish signal with strong flow and multi-timeframe alignment. | Enter short with increased sizing. |
| ELITE BUY | Bullish | Maximum conviction. All factors aligned. Rare signal. | Full allocation. This is the highest-quality setup the system produces. |
| ELITE SELL | Bearish | Maximum conviction. All factors aligned. Rare signal. | Full short allocation. |
Key principle: Only BUY, SELL, STRONG, and ELITE tiers are actionable entry signals. WATCH means "prepare but wait." WAIT means "do nothing."
3. Shield Protection System
The Shield is your risk override. It operates independently of the signal and always takes priority. Think of it as a circuit breaker that protects you from entering trades during dangerous market conditions.
| Shield Level | Icon | Severity | What It Means | What You Do |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLEAR | ● | 1 (lowest) | Normal trading conditions. No elevated risk detected. | Trade normally. Full position sizing allowed. |
| GUARD | ◐ | 2 | Caution warranted. Some risk indicators are elevated. | Trade with awareness. Stay alert for escalation. |
| PROTECT | ◑ | 3 | Elevated risk. Tighten stops and reduce position sizes. | Cut size by 50%. Move stops closer. Do not add to positions. |
| EXIT | ○ | 4 (highest) | Critical risk. High probability of reversal or crash. | Close all positions immediately. Do not enter new trades under any circumstance. |
The Shield always wins. If you see an ELITE BUY signal but the Shield is at EXIT, you do not trade. Period. The Shield protects your capital when the signal model cannot see the macro risk.
4. The Expandable Trade Plan Card
Click any row in the Signal Board to expand its Trade Plan Card. This is where the signal becomes a complete, actionable trade plan. The card has six sections:
4.1 Urgency Banner
The colored banner at the top tells you the immediate action:
- Green "ENTER LONG" — Confirmed bullish signal. You should be looking to buy.
- Red "ENTER SHORT" — Confirmed bearish signal. You should be looking to sell or buy puts.
- Yellow "WAIT" — Setup is forming but not confirmed. Prepare but do not enter.
- Gray "NO TRADE" — No actionable setup. Stay flat.
The right side of the banner shows the signal description (e.g., "Confirmed signal — standard sizing" or "Watch mode — preparing for entry").
4.2 Signal Summary (Left Column)
This section provides the quantitative foundation of the trade:
- Signal Label — The full signal tier with direction (e.g., "Buy — Confirmed Signal").
- Current Price — The last known price of the asset.
- Win Probability — Historical win rate for this signal tier and market, shown as a percentage with a progress bar.
- Move Strength — A 0–100 score measuring how much momentum is behind the expected move.
- Price Target — The model's expected price destination, shown in dollars and as a percentage move.
- Suggested DTE — Recommended days-to-expiration for options traders.
4.3 Trade Zones
The most critical section for execution. It gives you three precise price levels:
| Zone | What It Is | How It's Calculated |
|---|---|---|
| Entry Zone | The price range where you should enter. | ±0.5% from the current price. Enter within this range. |
| Stop Loss | The price at which you exit the trade to limit losses. | Based on conviction: MAX = 3%, HIGH = 3.5%, MODERATE = 4%, SPECULATIVE = 5% from entry. |
| Profit Target | The price at which you take profits. | Derived from the TMF expected-move model. |
Below the zones you will find:
- R:R (Risk-Reward Ratio) — The ratio of potential profit to potential loss. A 2:1 R:R means you stand to make $2 for every $1 risked.
- Est. Premium — Estimated options premium cost per contract.
- Max Risk/Contract — Maximum dollar loss per options contract if stopped out.
4.4 Conviction & Position Size (Right Column)
This section translates the signal into portfolio allocation:
- Conviction Level — MAX, HIGH, MODERATE, or SPECULATIVE, with a plain-English explanation.
- Position Size — Percentage of your standard allocation. For example, "75% of standard position" means if your standard trade is $10,000, this trade should be $7,500.
4.5 Shield Advisory
A dedicated section showing the current Shield status with a severity-appropriate icon and explanation. If the Shield is at PROTECT or EXIT, this section will display a prominent warning that overrides the signal's entry recommendation.
4.6 Options Setup
For options traders, this section provides:
- Direction — CALL or PUT.
- DTE — Recommended days-to-expiration range.
- Target — The price target for strike selection.
- Timing — Whether to enter now (SOON) or wait for a better entry.
A guidance note explains how to select your strike price and DTE based on the target and risk-reward parameters.
4.7 "What To Do" Action Summary
The final section at the bottom of the card provides a plain-English summary of the entire trade plan. It synthesizes the signal, flow, shield, and conviction into a single paragraph that tells you exactly what to do. For example:
"Confirmed buy signal. Flow at 90 supports bullish momentum. Enter within the $98.97–$99.96 zone. Set stop at $95.49. Target $106.84 for a 1:1.9 risk-reward. Shield is at GUARD — trade with normal sizing but stay alert."
5. Conviction-to-Sizing Quick Reference
Use this table to translate conviction levels into position sizes. These are percentages of your standard allocation — the dollar amount you normally risk on a single trade.
| Conviction | Position Size | When You See It |
|---|---|---|
| MAX | 75% | All timeframes aligned, strong flow, elite signal. Rare. |
| HIGH | 50% | Most factors aligned. Strong setup with good risk-reward. |
| MODERATE | 25% | Some factors aligned. Decent setup but with caveats. |
| SPECULATIVE | Skip or 10% | Limited alignment. Only for experienced traders who want exposure. |
| SKIP | 0% | Conditions are not favorable. Do not enter. |
6. Multi-Timeframe Alignment (W/D/6H)
The three dots in the W/D/6H column represent trend direction on three timeframes:
- W (Weekly) — The macro trend. This is the most important timeframe for swing trades.
- D (Daily) — The intermediate trend. Confirms whether the weekly trend is intact.
- 6H (6-Hour) — The short-term trend. Provides timing precision for entries.
When all three are green (bullish) or all three are red (bearish), you have maximum alignment. Mixed signals (e.g., Weekly bullish, Daily bearish) reduce conviction and should be treated with smaller position sizes.
7. Flow Score Interpretation
The Flow score measures institutional momentum on a 0–100 scale. Here is how to interpret it:
| Range | Meaning | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| 80–100 | Extremely strong momentum | High confidence in the signal direction. Institutions are heavily committed. |
| 60–79 | Strong momentum | Good support for the signal. Normal trading conditions. |
| 40–59 | Neutral/mixed | Flow is inconclusive. Reduce size or wait for confirmation. |
| 20–39 | Weak/reversing | Flow contradicts the signal or is fading. Exercise caution. |
| 0–19 | Extremely weak | Strong counter-momentum. The signal may be a trap. Avoid. |
Negative flow scores (shown as negative numbers like -15) indicate bearish institutional flow. The magnitude still follows the same scale — a flow of -90 is extremely strong bearish momentum.
8. Workflow: From Signal Board to Trade Execution
Follow this step-by-step workflow every time you check the Signal Board:
Step 1 — Scan the Board. Look at the SIGNAL column first. Identify any BUY, SELL, STRONG, or ELITE signals. Ignore WAIT and WATCH rows unless you are building a watchlist.
Step 2 — Check the Shield. For any actionable signal, immediately check the SHIELD column. If it is PROTECT or EXIT, do not proceed regardless of the signal strength.
Step 3 — Expand the Trade Plan Card. Click the row to open the full trade plan. Review the urgency banner, win probability, and move strength.
Step 4 — Set Your Levels. Note the Entry Zone, Stop Loss, and Profit Target from the Trade Zones section. Enter these into your broker platform.
Step 5 — Size Your Position. Use the Conviction and Position Size section to determine how much capital to allocate. Never exceed the recommended size.
Step 6 — Execute. If using options, follow the Options Setup section for direction, DTE, and strike selection. If using shares, enter within the Entry Zone.
Step 7 — Manage. After entry, monitor the Shield status. If it escalates to PROTECT, tighten your stop. If it escalates to EXIT, close the position immediately.
9. Subscription Tiers and Access
Not all features are available on every tier. Here is what each tier unlocks:
| Feature | Free | Substack | Standard | Pro |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markets visible | 5 | 12 | 25 | 25 |
| Signal Board | Limited | Partial | Full | Full |
| Trade Plan Cards | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Options Chain | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Playbook | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Watchlist | No | No | No | Yes (25 slots) |
| Email Alerts | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| Priority Support | No | No | No | Yes |
To upgrade your tier, visit the Pricing page from the navigation menu.
10. Tips for New Subscribers
Start with the highest-conviction signals. The "Top Setups" panel on the right side of the Signal Board highlights the markets with the strongest signals and highest flow scores. Begin there.
Respect the Shield. The most common mistake new subscribers make is ignoring the Shield because the signal looks attractive. The Shield exists to protect you from macro risks that the signal model cannot see. Trust it.
Use the Trade Plan Card as your checklist. Do not trade from memory. Every time you enter a trade, have the Trade Plan Card open and verify your entry zone, stop, and target match the card's recommendations.
Track your results. The Signal Board updates weekly. After each cycle, review which signals hit their targets and which were stopped out. This builds intuition for which market conditions produce the best results.
Ask questions. Use the support chat (the blue icon in the bottom-right corner) if anything is unclear. The system is designed to be self-explanatory, but every trader's context is different.
This guide is a living document and will be updated as new features are added to the Signal Board. For the latest version, visit the Playbook section of AetherMarkets.